Will the electric vehicle be produced in 2 parts? The body of the car separate from the chassis with the electric motor, batteries, and control systems.
Absolutely yes.
Automobile manufacturing will undergo huge change with the introduction of mass market Electric Vehicles (“EVs”).
Manufacture of a chassis with the motor(s), batteries, drive components and computer controls will be relatively simple. Each of the sub components like motors and batteries will be procured from a high volume supplier. A few platform types will address 80% to 95% of vehicle design needs. These will be easy to create and there could be a large number of manufacturers that go into the business of supplying these finished chassis. It will likely be the least profitable part of the new automobile manufacturing business.
Much of the profits will go downstream to the suppliers of components like motors, batteries and computer control systems. Each of these providers will have some protection from competition due to legacy experience, patents and high upfront cost of building the manufacturing facilities. A single electric motor or battery facility might supply dozens of chassis manufacturers.
But most of the profits will go upstream to the companies that put bodies on the chassis. There will be many more manufacturers of bodies than today. Bending sheet metal for the EV skin and many interior components might come from mass suppliers or skilled job shops depending on volume and design needs. The simpler task of designing a special purpose body for a purchased chassis will allow for more entrants … way more than most might think.
Besides the usual 2 to 7 passenger sedan/crossover/SUV choices, there will be an opportunity for special choices that would be more difficult today to financially justify. Since high volume cost effective EVs will happen in a 2020+ time frame, we need to add fully autonomous Self Drive Vehicle (“faSDV”) capability to our EV business case. And faSDVs will happen in the same 2020+ time frame.
The low cost of body manufacturer combined with low volume capability will allow for many new entrants from surprising areas of business for the core mass vehicle categories we have today. Tech companies, like Apple or Google, could easily create branded EVs in volume using contract manufacturers (think Foxconn like). Luxury brands like LV or Rolex or Tiffany might also have vehicles. The simplicity of this process might induce companies like WalMart and Amazon to enter the automobile market. And many of the large multi brand auto dealer companies might like to capture manufacturer profits by creating in house branded vehicles.
Special purpose vehicle bodies could include unique designs for ride sharing and taxis. Autonomous food and package delivery as well. New designs for traveling sales and service people and for longer distance commuters. Autonomous RVs, local transit, and long haul passenger movement are all categories of vehicle design.
In other words, the future of the automobile manufacturing business that has EV base might be to go back to the distant past. “…Thirty American manufacturers produced 2,500 motor vehicles in 1899, and some 485 companies entered the business in the next decade…” (Automobile History). The original auto business was like the coming future … some companies did engines, others did frames and others the bodies.
There will be a fragmentation of the automobile industry with the introduction of mass EV production … major components, chassis and bodies. So like the early days of the auto industry, we will see an explosion EV manufacturers at all levels. Winners will be hard to pick and will likely NOT be most of today’s legacy companies. It will be exciting for consumers and terrifying for much of the existing automobile industry.
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