Which power source (electric or gas) is better suited for self-driving technology? (Part 2)

Details on why the cost of batteries and the weight of batteries are too high today for use in long haul trucking.

Let's do some math. A Tesla weighs 4,300 lbs and the battery is around 1,200 lbs. Based on this, let’s say that 1,200 lbs of battery is needed to move 6,000 lbs 200+ miles.
A semi truck + trailer + 50,000 lbs cargo + 300 gal diesel will exceed 80,000 lbs. total. Three hundred gal of diesel weighs 2,250 lbs.
Based on the Tesla battery to weight relationship 80,000 lbs will require 16,000 lbs of battery (based on a 5:1 relationship). Plus another 3,000 lbs of battery to move the battery. Rounding up to something like 20,000 lbs of battery to move the truck 200+miles.
The best case for estimating Tesla battery replacement is somewhere around $20,000++. This would imply a current battery cost for a truck of something around $300,000+. For a truck that currently sells for around $100,000. Not going to happen any time soon and not needed to have a successful self drive truck platform.
One truck will equal 16+ electric cars. Currently 16 electric cars would be a more profitable use of the battery capacity versus truck.
Finally capital costs. The $2Billion Gigafactory will produce 35 GW per year with enough batteries for 500,000 cars. Or, in this analysis, around 30,000 semis. The semi truck market is over 200,000 units annually in the USA alone. Likely over 15 billion to build the factories and a lot more for manufacturing materials (if even available).
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This is just a quick estimate that I believe to be directionally correct…not precise but close enough to establish that batteries are NOT coming to trucks anytime soon. Electric propulsion has a great future. It will happen. But it’s going to take a long time and long haul trucking will be at the tail end of this adoption curve.
Batteries for trucks will need a sub $50 kph cost ($20?) and density might need to improve as much as 4x+.
And, IMHO, semi trucks are going to be early on the adoption curve for self drive and economics will mean that the powertrain will be ICE.


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This post originally appeared on Quora.com on June 13, 2016 as an extended comment/reply to this post: https://goo.gl/KvKQ5z .

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